Pure Baseball Community

First Half Review/Second Half Outlook

Brian B. — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:29:00 GMT

Using the mid-season stats so generously supplied by Kevin I can now compulsively pick apart the offensive performance of my Champs league Mulligans. The whole team has under performed so far with 47 wins versus the Pythagorean estimate of 57 with the runs scored and allowed so far.

I can now see who is under performing and over performing versus their PB averages from all leagues. For the 9 hitters who’ve played the most:

	HR	BA	SLG	OBP	OPS
McCann	4	26	111	42	153
Texeira	-2	-30	-50	-18	-68
Weeks	-5	5	-77	1	-76
Matsui	0	-37	-64	-16	-80
Tulowitzki	-2	-22	-39	-17	-56
Wright	-5	-39	-114	-19	-133
Dunn	-1	47	44	21	65
Granderson	2	-18	-62	-46	-108
Hart	3	-2	25	7	32

No surprises as Dunn, Hart and McCann looked to be playing above expectations but I was surprised at the extent of the under achieving by Wright and Granderson. Things have improved tremendously from the first 40 games to the second 40: going from 19 wins to 25, averaging 5.55 runs per game versus 4.35 and being healthier and more comfortably back in the playoff picture. Being 10-19 in one run games doesn’t help either.

All in all, there is reason for optimism in the second half. The pitching remains strong, with bullpen help coming over in a recent trade and the offense seems poised to improve their overall performance in the second half.

Non-Participating Managers

Rybman — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 22:24:00 GMT

I have only been on the site for a couple of years, but I have already observed that some managers do not even bother to set lineups or arrange pitchers for the away games. Then those same managers get wins because the lineup was set by the computer. I believe that managers should be punished for not actively participating with their teams. I'm for making the sim game as realistic as possible, but I think managers should not be rewarded for not participating. Managers who manage their teams every week should be given some type of reward for participating if going up against a team whose manager mismanages his team. Have it set up that if the lineups are incomplete, the weakest player gets the spot or the team loses the series. To me, if a manager in real life baseball mismanages his team, it doesn't matter how good the players are, that team will lose games.

C15 SEASON PREDICTIONS

KenG — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 21:34:00 GMT

How it will all play out:

In the Jr Circuit expect ERA's around 5 for every team in the East except California. I don't see any team challenging the Crush for the division title, while a wild card is a possibility for one of these teams if they pick up a good #3 starter. The West sees Burlington and Orlando fighting it out, then playing each other in the first round, where the winner faces the Crush in the second round, with the Crush moving on to the World Series.

The Sr. Circuit has the stronger teams this year, Carolina and San Diego the cream of that crop. The battle for the two wild card positions comes down to Chattanooga, Pistakee Bay, and Parkland. Expect Carolina to face San Diego, with no clear cut favorite to meet California in the World Series.

The World Series sees two evenly matched teams facing each other, with fatigue possibly playing a part as some players might not be available.

Good luck to all teams in proving these projections wrong. Remember just one major trade can change everything.

NOW THE TEAM BY TEAM PREDICTIONS:

JUNIOR CIRCUIT

EASTERN

California Crush 100

Best hitting in the league with Posada, Helton, Arod, and company, plus 3 good starters and easy division could lead to the World Series. 4th starter only weakness and doesn't come into play for this team in the playoffs.

Salusan 76

No real hitting star with the team led by Burrell, lack of enough good starter innings will lead to an average season. A couple trades landing another hitter and pitcher gets this team into the wild card. Will they make that push?

Lafayette Legends 73

Vlad will help this team score a lot of runs, but only two decent starters will lead this team to a lot of high scoring games. Bullpen lacks depth as well. Looks like a rebuilding year.

Oakland 71

Surprise team last year as they were outscored but still won 90 games, look for the team to drop back into the basement as Roberts and Matsui won't be enough to get this team in contention.

Wabash 69

Hudson and Kazmir are fine, but they are the only two guys that can be counted on starting, Heath Bell will help, as will a strong offense led by Soriano, but breaking .500 is extremely doubtful.

WESTERN

Burlington 89

Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Teixeira plus a very strong relief corp make Burlington the team to beat in its division. Don't expect the starting staff to be as good as their ERA might suggest, but still good enough to win.

Orlando 86

Strong bullpen plus Ortiz, Lincecum and Lilly get this team into the playoffs. Some weakness at catcher and the lack of another hitting superstar will keep this team from going far in the playoffs.

Siebu 78

This team can hit with guys like Thome, Utlely, Hermida and Cust smacking the ball around. Lack of bullpen depth and higher than expected ERA's from the SP keep this team around .500. Picking up a couple strong pitchers sees this team finish above .500 and get the final wild card spot.

Port Orchard 75

Fielder, Dunn and Howard make things tough on pitchers, but beyond McGowan these starters don't frighten you. If another SP is brought in this team will climb the standings.

Kokomo 73

Average starters and relievers plus average hitting for this division leads to a last place finish. Could just as easily finish with the last wild card if top reliever and a SS/2B can be traded for as the 4th through the 8th teams aren't much different from each other.

SENIOR CIRCUIT

EASTERN

San Diego 93

Pitching pitching pitching, this team has it. It’s the best staff in baseball. All 5 starters may end up with ERA's below 4, plus two great closers make this the team to beat in the division. Some worry next year as Lackey and Escobar have complained about some arm soreness.

Chattanooga 89

Pena, Ichiro, and Alou lead a strong offenxe with a very good 1-2 punch in Verlander and Young. Could use a better 3rd pitcher to help guarentee a wild card.

Pistakee Bay 88

Peavy, Albert and Putz, no, not a law firm, but the leaders of this team that will have them in the wild card chase.

Morgan Hill 63

The bullpen looks good with depth and a great closer. The problem is they won't have many leads to protect as the starters are suspect and the hitting is average. Should be able to stay out of the cellar.

Tucson 62

No starting pitching in this division means a long season. This team can score some runs, but a team ERA that will approach 5 won't cut it in the NL.

WESTERN

Carolina 96

Best offense in the NL combined with good pitching should get the best record in the NL. Catcher only real weakness.

Parkland Boyz 88

Three very good starters plus Holiday, Martinez and Craford leading the attack sees this team getting the Wild Card. Possible that the three lefty SP underperform and the team misses out. Good test for the lefty curse of PB.

Stanton 82

This team can hit with Bonds and Pence, but expect the pitching to underperform leaving the team at just above .500.

Glen Ellyn 78

Josh and Fausto are very good, but with the best two hitters on the team sharing the same position, they won't score enough runs to make it to .500

Burlington 71

Very good infield offensively, they are short circuited by a poor hitting catcher and starting pitching, which leaves the team in last place.