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Ken's Korner

The place that I'll ramble on about all things baseball, with the occasional off-topic comments included as well.

Evaluating prospects: Matt Kemp, Jeremy Hermida, Hunter Pence

So I just traded Matt Kemp for Jeremy Hermida. Being the great GM that I am I decided to do some research after I made the deal. Why did I make the deal, you ask? Because its PB that we play. I made the trade in a 24 team league, thus stats are pretty accurate, but its still going to have a platoon effect. Simply stated I wanted a lefty over a righty.

Did I make the right decision? Using Pecota from Baseball Prospectus shows Kemp and Hermida to very even. I decided to include Hunter Pence here as well as he will be a top 5 pick and is one of the top OF in this draft. Notice in EQA he is the lowest rated player? But look at WARP, he wins hands down. Why? Because he is projected at CF while the other to guys are at RF.

Positional value needs to be included as one set of criteria, along with a players age, hitting skills, team he is with, your needs, etc. If I could have Pence over Hermida I'd probably give up some offense to get CF play, plus I'd take Hermida over Kemp by a whisker. Hope you enjoyed. If you have some spare cash join Baseball Prospectus as its fun to use Pecota and see a players career.

KEMP										EQUIVALENTS
Year	PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007 (age 22)	311	12	5	10	16	66	10	5	0.345	0.379	0.541	0.920	0.304	23.400	69-RF -4	3.1
2008 (age 23)	496	28	4	19	35	97	18	5	0.294	0.347	0.511	0.858	0.287	27.700	117-RF 0	4.200
2009 (age 24)	511	29	4	20	38	98	18	5	0.293	0.349	0.504	0.853	0.291	26.000	120-RF 0	4.200
2010 (age 25)	527	30	4	22	42	98	18	5	0.300	0.358	0.520	0.878	0.298	31.000	124-RF 1	4.700
2011 (age 26)	518	30	3	22	43	93	21	5	0.301	0.361	0.524	0.885	0.301	32.400	122-RF 0	4.700
2012 (age 27)	556	34	3	25	45	97	19	4	0.299	0.357	0.530	0.887	0.300	28.200	131-RF 0	4.100
2013 (age 28)	541	32	3	24	45	97	15	4	0.291	0.348	0.520	0.868	0.293	25.100	127-RF -2	3.800
2014 (age 29)	536	30	2	24	47	96	14	3	0.288	0.349	0.512	0.861	0.292	23.100	126-RF -2	3.600
												0.876	0.296			32.400

HERMIDA										EQUIVALENTS
Year	PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007 (age 23)	484	32	1	18	47	105	3	4	0.304	0.379	0.525	0.904	0.300	27.300	111-RF 1	4.9
2008 (age 24)	532	31	2	19	67	106	9	3	0.284	0.377	0.494	0.871	0.295	27.900	125-RF -1	4.500
2009 (age 25)	541	31	2	20	68	104	9	2	0.278	0.370	0.485	0.855	0.294	24.300	127-RF 0	4.500
2010 (age 26)	566	32	2	21	74	111	10	3	0.275	0.371	0.484	0.855	0.294	24.500	133-RF -1	4.500
2011 (age 27)	552	31	2	20	73	102	9	2	0.280	0.376	0.487	0.863	0.297	26.000	130-RF -4	4.400
2012 (age 28)	542	31	2	19	71	99	7	2	0.279	0.374	0.485	0.859	0.295	23.500	127-RF -3	4.000
2013 (age 29)	494	26	2	18	67	94	7	2	0.274	0.372	0.478	0.850	0.293	19.600	117-RF -3	3.600
2014 (age 30)	565	32	2	22	76	104	9	2	0.281	0.376	0.498	0.874	0.299	22.800	132-RF -5	3.600
												0.866	0.296			34.000

PENCE										EQUIVALENTS
Year	PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007 (age 24)	484	30	9	17	26	95	11	5	0.329	0.370	0.561	0.931	0.31	40.5	93-CF 5	6.4
2008 (age 25)	567	30	4	23	44	110	13	4	0.288	0.347	0.505	0.852	0.29	32	133-CF 2	5.4
2009 (age 26)	589	31	5	25	51	113	13	4	0.286	0.349	0.504	0.853	0.29	32	138-CF 1	5.4
2010 (age 27)	600	33	4	26	51	111	13	3	0.292	0.353	0.513	0.866	0.29	34	140-CF 2	5.5
2011 (age 28)	587	33	5	25	50	113	11	3	0.289	0.350	0.514	0.864	0.29	30.3	137-CF -1	4.7
2012 (age 29)	549	29	4	25	50	105	9	3	0.290	0.355	0.518	0.873	0.3	30.4	129-CF -3	4.6
2013 (age 30)	536	30	3	23	50	103	8	2	0.284	0.350	0.504	0.854	0.29	24.1	126-CF -4	3.8
2014 (age 31)	534	28	3	24	50	98	7	2	0.287	0.353	0.513	0.866	0.29	23.4	125-CF -3	3.7
												0.870	0.293			39.5

Published Friday, March 07, 2008 8:35 AM by KenG

Comments

	Brian B. said: What happens to Pence's WARP if the Astros move him to RF and stick Michael Bourn in CF? March 7, 2008 3:23 PM
	KenG said: He drops below Kemp. Thats the thing as well, if Pence plays CF 10% of the time for the next 5 years while the other two guys don't, he is more valuable in PB then in MLB. March 10, 2008 3:38 PM
	kraiger said: I'm pretty surprised at how consistent all 3 sets of predictions are (year to year). I suspect that there's not enough playing time to project variability. However, you'd expect Hermida's (seeming) advantage in batting eye to grow as he ages, but Kemp to hit w/ more power relative to the others as he ages. May 15, 2008 12:50 PM

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Evaluating prospects: Matt Kemp, Jeremy Hermida, Hunter Pence

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