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Center of the universe for all things Mulligan in B8 W9 A12 F18 Champs 99T2

First Half Review/Second Half Outlook

Using the mid-season stats so generously supplied by Kevin I can now compulsively pick apart the offensive performance of my Champs league Mulligans. The whole team has under performed so far with 47 wins versus the Pythagorean estimate of 57 with the runs scored and allowed so far.

I can now see who is under performing and over performing versus their PB averages from all leagues. For the 9 hitters who’ve played the most:

	HR	BA	SLG	OBP	OPS
McCann	4	26	111	42	153
Texeira	-2	-30	-50	-18	-68
Weeks	-5	5	-77	1	-76
Matsui	0	-37	-64	-16	-80
Tulowitzki	-2	-22	-39	-17	-56
Wright	-5	-39	-114	-19	-133
Dunn	-1	47	44	21	65
Granderson	2	-18	-62	-46	-108
Hart	3	-2	25	7	32

No surprises as Dunn, Hart and McCann looked to be playing above expectations but I was surprised at the extent of the under achieving by Wright and Granderson. Things have improved tremendously from the first 40 games to the second 40: going from 19 wins to 25, averaging 5.55 runs per game versus 4.35 and being healthier and more comfortably back in the playoff picture. Being 10-19 in one run games doesn’t help either.

All in all, there is reason for optimism in the second half. The pitching remains strong, with bullpen help coming over in a recent trade and the offense seems poised to improve their overall performance in the second half.

Published Friday, August 08, 2008 8:29 PM by Brian B.

Comments

	KenG said: As a team it looks like you are down approx. 271 points. or 30 per player. I'd guess you team averages around 825 OPS, so down about 3-4%. Thus you should continue to score runs at the same rate, with guys trending towards the mean. How is your pitching OPS compare? August 12, 2008 3:10 PM
	Brian B. said: It's hard to compare pitcher OPS because Kevin's great work doesn't include cumulative average OS numbers for pitchers. He does however include other measurements so I'll use those: ERA WHIP K/9 Halladay 0.968 1.008 -1.22 Peavy 0.867 0.906 0.01 Santana 1.160 1.184 -1.52 Vazquez 1.486 1.252 0.59 Zambrano 1.458 1.100 -0.18 What these numbers mean: For ERA and WHIP a number under 1.00 means the pitcher is underperforming (So Halladay is around 3.2% worse in ERA for my Champs team than in PB overall) and a number over is overacieving (Vazquez is 48.6% better for me than in PB overall). The K/9 number is simply the number of strikeouts per 9 innings pitched that the pitcher is over/under their PB average (Halladay K'd 1.22 less batters per 9 for me than his overall PB number). Conclusions: Vazquez is wildly overachieving on my Champs team while Zambrano and Santana are out-performing their aveerages to a lesser extent. Halladay is mildly underperforming and Peavy is missing the mark by 9.4% in WHIP and 13.3% in ERA. My home park is Baltimore which is essentially neutral with a 99 park rating. August 15, 2008 5:51 PM
	Kez said: Good news Brian - Next time I post the stats it should have Pitchers' total OPS. I've also updated the 'leaders' pages to hopefully make each category a little more user-friendly. If I remember, I may run the stats for the 120-game mark. September 23, 2008 2:06 AM