Pure Baseball Community

Using the mid-season stats so generously supplied by Kevin I can now compulsively pick apart the offensive performance of my Champs league Mulligans. The whole team has under performed so far with 47 wins versus the Pythagorean estimate of 57 with the runs scored and allowed so far.

I can now see who is under performing and over performing versus their PB averages from all leagues. For the 9 hitters who’ve played the most:

No surprises as Dunn, Hart and McCann looked to be playing above expectations but I was surprised at the extent of the under achieving by Wright and Granderson. Things have improved tremendously from the first 40 games to the second 40: going from 19 wins to 25, averaging 5.55 runs per game versus 4.35 and being healthier and more comfortably back in the playoff picture. Being 10-19 in one run games doesn’t help either.

All in all, there is reason for optimism in the second half. The pitching remains strong, with bullpen help coming over in a recent trade and the offense seems poised to improve their overall performance in the second half.

Bill James introduced the idea that one can estimate the amount of wins a team should have from looking at their runs scored and runs allowed totals. It's not perfect but it's a good indicator of whether a team over or under performed. Over the years it has been very accurate. The difference can sometimes be chalked up to managerial ability but mostly it's luck. Teams with excellent bullpens often over-perform due to winning more close games.

The formula is: 

Win% = Runs scored (2)/Runs scored (2) + Runs allowed (2)

(Note: The formula wouldn't copy to this page so I wrote it in. (2) = squared)

This is the breakdown for my teams this season:

This kind of fits my general perception that I'm not a particularly good game manager. I like the GM side of things much better and think I'm better at assessing and accumulating talent than utilizing it in the actual games. The only league where playing closer to the Pythagorean estimate would've made a difference was B8 where I would've made the playoffs instead of missing out by a few games. 

Once again the Senior Circuit of Champs is providing us with a great pennant/wildcard race. With 45 games remaining the standings:

Eastern

Palos Hills             73-42

East Bay                61-54

Cedar Rapids        61-54

Western

La Jolla                   65-50

Glen Ellyn              63-52

New York               61-54

Santa Barbara       61-54

Four teams tied for the last wildcard slot and nobody in the clear except Palos Hills. There was a six team down-to-the-wire finish (with one playoff game needed to decide the last wildcard) last year and it appears that things will be even crazier this year.       

In W9 I had six first round rookie picks and high hopes for acquiring the base for future Mulligan teams. I had picks # 2,7,13,14,17 and 20. While that’s a good position to be in actually executing the draft successfully is no small feat. I picked this team up just before last years drafts and added King Felix, Francisco Liriano, Brian McCann and Josh Johnson for a good start.

I was already set at catcher but every other position was wide open. I did have a good young pitching nucleus but you can never have too many good young pitchers (What’s the best way to develop 4 good young pitchers? Start with 12 good young pitchers and pray). There were 4 good secondbasemen(Kendrick, Uggla, Kinsler and Barfield), 2 good shortstops(Drew and Tulowitzki), 2 good catchers(Martin and Johjima),  4 superior outfielders(D.Young, Markakis, C.Young and Quentin) and the usual host of pitchers.

My goal was to acquire a new double play combo, at least 2 outfielders and draft pitching with the rest. A secondary part of the plan was to use my five second round picks (#2,3,5,7 and 20) to get another outfielder, a thirdbaseman and a catcher, with pitching being, as always, the overflow option. I wanted to avoid taking too many pitchers because that has a much higher chance of disaster. Two would be good, six would be a calamity.

I planned on taking Delmon Young if he was there and Steven Drew if D.Young was gone. This was the easy part to plan on and worked out as predicted, Drew was a Mulligan with the second pick. Next up was the #7 pick, with which I hoped to select Chris Young to play center field. I figured C.Young would last at least until #7 with the other outfielders, position players and pitchers available. Wrong. In W9 he goes the highest in all PB with the #3 pick, with an average selection of 13.67. The fallback outfielder was Markakis, PB average 7.22, but he is gone with the #6 pick.

Figuring the other outfielders would last until the 13-14 picks I set my list for my #1 secondbaseman, Howie Kendrick. I get him and am hopefully set in the middle infield for quite awhile. So far, so good. Overall in PB 4 of the top 12 picks were pitchers but W9 GM’s take only 2 in the top dozen (Weaver and Hamels), instead taking all four outfielders I coveted when Carlos Quentin (15.33 average) is gone at #9.

So, despite my best laid plans I wind up with pitchers with picks #13,14 and 17. While I like Pelfrey(22.41), Garza(22.85) and Billingsley(23.37) they’re all a bit overdrafted and I’m still left with an empty outfield. That problem gets rectified when I get Lastings Milledge(26.26) with #20. He would’ve been a drop for Quentin but I like him well enough.

Six first round picks, six players selected before their average slot. I like the talent but this a good example of the difficulty of managing a multi-pick rookie draft. It sounds good but the execution can be sticky.

The second round starts off with Chris Ianetta the catcher I had #1 on my new list going ahead of me at 21. However, things went well after that with Kevin Kouzmanoff(26.56) at 22, Andrew Miller(28.22) #23, Jeremy Sowers(17.41! Finally a bargain) #25 and Ryan Sweeney (53.5) with #27. Alberto Callaspo, Jason Hirsh, Joel Guzman and Ubaldo Jiminez were added later.

Bottom Line: Lots of talent, most of it overdrafted but, as always, if they can play it’s a good pick.