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Bad luck or design?

Last post 12-04-2017, 9:46 PM by Bob Campbell. 3 replies.
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  •  11-28-2017, 9:17 PM 7595

    Bad luck or design?

    Well I just finished the first two home games with 8 different teams. The fact that I had the home filed advantage means I had a strong team - a division winner. In the 16 games I surrendered 25 runs in the top of the first inning (collective ERA of over 14). In nearly every series it seems I was down before I even batted! Now I understand 16 games is a small sample but the numbers were so extreme I began to wonder is this a simple case of incredibly bad luck (this is supposed to be a stat based game and I have some very good starting pitchers) or is the game designed to help the visiting team a bit in order to offset the fact that the robot manager if fairly inept. On one team Carlos Carrasco is sporting a ridiculous 216 ERA! No I didn't accidentally leave out the decimal point. His  ERA is two hundred and sixteen.  On another team Justin Verlander has a 54 ERA. Now I want to be clear I am NOT accusing anybody of anything. I get to play half my playoff games on the road and if such a "built in"  exists I would surely benefit in my away games. I also understand the availability bias. Kurt K you can weigh in on this. Playoff games are important, the entire season is at stake, so each setback is magnified. I've been with PB since the old CSN days and I can't recall taking such a pounding in the top of the first in so many games. Comments welcomed.      
  •  11-29-2017, 7:15 AM 7596 in reply to 7595

    Re: Bad luck or design or invisible rusty?

    Here are the grades and playoff ERA for my starting pitchers (18 games -- 16 home / 2 away).

    Carrasco (6.3/7.6) 216.22

    Verlander (7.3/6.8) 54.05

    Verlander (7.3/6.8) 54.05 -- yes another start with another team, exact same result

    Sanchez (7.8/7.0) 36.00

    Hill (8.7/8.4) 19.29

    Lackey (6.6/6.0) 18.00

    Price (6.0/5.0) 14.40

    Kennedy (5.0/7.0) 12.00

    Wright (7.4/6.7) 7.26

    Roark (7.0/8.0) 5.06

    Price (6.0/5.0) 4.77 -- yes another start with a somewhat better outcome

    Hill (8.7/8.4) 4.26 --  yes another start with a somewhat better outcome

    Sabathia (6.0/5.0) 3.86

    Too be fair there were a few strong performances too Rodon (4.6/5.7) 2.25, Sabathia (6.0/5.0) 1.69, Hill (8.7/8.4) 1.29, Porcello (7.7/7.0) 1.17, Fernandez (6.5/7.0) 0.00

    Which leads me to another theory. Since all of my teams had clinched the division (plus one wild card) early, I rested my best starters on the farm for the last week or more and then recalled them when I set my playoff roster. Is it possible they were actually rusty but did not show it on the status page? That would explain a lot, especially the pounding many of them took in the 1st inning.

     

     

      

  •  12-04-2017, 6:01 PM 7597 in reply to 7596

    Re: Bad luck or design or invisible rusty?

    I've seen the top of the first kill my home teams, both in the regular season as well as the playoffs.

    In 6 playoff games this year, the road team scored 9 runs in the first inning.

    Scherzer gave up 4 runs.

    Maeda gave up 4 runs.  

    1 runs scored in another game.

    So the road team got first inning runs 50% of the time, and often >3 runs.

    I think that on 2 games where I escaped with no runs allowed, I got out of bases loaded jams!!

    May be bad luck, but even in the regular season the trend seems to hold.

     

     

     

     

  •  12-04-2017, 9:46 PM 7598 in reply to 7597

    Re: Bad luck or design or invisible rusty?

    Now up to 35 runs in 25 top of the 1st inning or 12.60 ERA!
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